Latest Florida COVID-19 Projection Model Suggests “Relaxed Social Distancing” Possible After June 21

As data surrounding the ongoing health crisis is continuously updated, the situation surrounding COVID-19 keeps changing, with the latest projection models now stating that the earliest date social distancing may be possible in Florida is June 21. This is a marked delay from the previous June 14 estimations. By now, many states have chosen to open up businesses far in advance of these dates, however this might still be a useful guide as to how long new social distancing protocols may be enforced throughout the country.

According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) from the University of Washington, a color-coded map of the United States shows Florida under the grade indicating a June 8 or later date for relaxed social distancing. California is listed under a May 18 to May 24 threshold date. It’s implied that relaxed social distancing is contingent on containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering sizes.

The latest update establishes a date of June 1 as the soonest relaxed social distancing may be possible. According to IHME research parameters, these predictions are based on when the upper bound of the 95% uncertainty interval for all-age COVID-19 prevalent infections falls below 1 per 1,000,000.

Mass gathering restrictions and Stay-at-Home orders have yet to be extended past May 3 throughout Florida. The state’s top business executives, including theme park presidents like Walt Disney World Resort’s Josh D’Amaro, have been appointed to the governor’s Re-Open Florida Task Force, with the group set to finalize plans for the transition through all phases needed for a full reopening.

Walt Disney World Resort remains closed “until further notice” and an official reopening date has not been announced.

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  1. Thanks for the post. “latest projection models now stating that the earliest date social distancing may be possible in Florida is June 21” what is your source for this info?

  2. The IHME site graphs seem to indicate that the ‘safe to relax’ threshold is actually when the upper bound of deaths-per-day is less than 1, not new or active infections (despite the site’s own description of that threshold). Perhaps the dates of both metrics happens to coincide, or perhaps it’s just mislabeled. The date keeps getting pushed out probably because of the erratic daily death counts- it isn’t that more people than expected are dying, but by having high days and low days the confidence interval has to stay wider. If deaths-per-day were a smoother curve, confidence in the prediction would be more accurate and lower the upper bound sooner. For some reason every peak in deaths-per-day is on a Thursday. The site also states that the ‘safe to relax’ date is dependent on things like contract tracing, which isn’t even a thing yet in most places… Or maybe I’m completely misreading that.

  3. I have my reservations for WDW Resort June 9-15. I have not been notified in anyway from Disney regarding the re-opening. Do we have any idea yet as to when they will actually re-open?!

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