NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Shannen Ace

People in red and yellow rain gear hold a "Magic Kingdom Rainy Day Cavalcade" banner as they walk down Main Street U.S.A. in the rain

NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, predicting an above-normal season.

NOAA 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

NOAA 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook including a pie graph showing a high probability of an above-normal season and a list of potential hurricane data

The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Florida is, of course, located between the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and hurricanes will likely affect Walt Disney World Resort and Universal Orlando Resort operations. The 2024 hurricane season is from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA states there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. There is a 70% chance of the following ranges:

  • 17-25 Named Storms
  • 8-13 Hurricanes
  • 4-7 Major Hurricanes
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 150%-245% of the median

The expected ranges are above the 1991 – 2020 seasonal averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October.

Twenty of the 29 recent hurricane seasons have been above-normal, five have been near-normal, and four have been below-normal. Nine of the 20 above-normal years were hyper-active (% median ACE ≥ 165%).

NOAA will update its outlook in early August.

Depending on the severity and path of a hurricane, Walt Disney World Resort and Universal Orlando Resort may close their theme parks, shorten hours, or alter operations by closing outdoor attractions.

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