Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software Team is predicting a slightly less severe Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, according to their initial report released Thursday, April 9. It’s the first report for the 2026 season.

Hurricane Predictions

The report details everything from the number of storms, major hurricanes, and the number of storm days, among other details. These reports do not guarantee the weather or the magnitude of the forthcoming hurricane season. However, they are helpful when planning a Disney World and/or Universal Orlando vacation.

So far, the predictions indicate:

• Named Storms: 13 (average 1991-2020: 14.4)
• Named Storm Days: 55 (average 1991-2020: 69.4)
• Hurricanes: 6 (average 1991-2020: 7.2)
• Hurricane Days: 20 (average 1991-2020: 27)
• Major Hurricanes: 2 (average 1991-2020: 3.2)
• Major Hurricane Days: 5 (average 1991-2020: 7.4)
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): 90 (average 1991-2020: 123)
  • Measurement of a storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction
• ACE West of 60 Degrees Longitude: 50 (average 1991-2020: 73)

Here is what the researcher has to say so far about the hurricane season:

We anticipate that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below-normal activity. Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.

They will release additional forecast updates on June 10, July 8, and August 5.

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