Disney and Lucasfilm’s return to the big-screen Star Wars universe may arrive with a more modest opening than some franchise observers expected.

Latest Star Wars Release Could be the Softest Launch in Years

According to early box office tracking, Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is currently projected to earn roughly $80 million domestically in its opening weekend. That would put the film below the debut of Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened in 2018 with about $84 million over three days and $104 million across the four-day Memorial Day frame.

Solo remains the lowest-performing live-action theatrical entry in the Star Wars franchise (only beaten out by 2008’s Star Wars: The Clone Wars animated film). Solo’s record-low turnout ironically helped push Lucasfilm away from frequent theatrical releases and toward Disney+ projects like The Mandalorian, and later series such as Ahsoka and Andor.

Still, the reported tracking does not necessarily mean Disney views the film as a failure.

The project is being positioned differently from a mainline saga installment, centering on Din Djarin and Grogu after years of audience familiarity through streaming. The film also arrives after a long theatrical gap for the franchise; The Rise of Skywalker was the last Star Wars movie released in theaters, released in 2019. The landscape for theatrical releases and performance expectations has changed since then, so there may be optimism that, while opening weekend returns could stay low, the new film could enjoy staying power that propels it to financial success.

If the current projections hold, The Mandalorian and Grogu may test how much of the show’s Disney+ audience will follow the characters back into theaters. It will also give Lucasfilm its first major box office read on Star Wars as a theatrical brand after nearly seven years away from cinemas.

Directed by Jon Favreau, The Mandalorian and Grogu is scheduled to open on May 22, 2026. The film brings Pedro Pascal’s Mandalorian and Grogu from Disney+ to theaters, with Sigourney Weaver appearing as Colonel Ward and Jeremy Allen White voicing Rotta the Hutt.

Favreau has described the movie as a theatrical entry designed to work for both established fans and viewers who may not have followed every Disney+ series. The film also marks Favreau’s first time directing a Star Wars feature after helping launch the franchise’s streaming era with The Mandalorian.

For those seeing the film during the opening weekend, you may be among the few to snatch up one of the many collectibles and novelties promoting the release while supplies last at various theater chains.

Watch the final trailer for The Mandalorian and Grogu:

Have you already bought tickets for The Mandalorian and Grogu? Or will you be seeing it a few days or weeks after opening weekend? Let us know on social media.

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