A media executive thinks that no movie will top $1 billion at the box office in 2024. The prediction comes in CNBC‘s Alex Sherman’s roundup of 2024 predictions that also include thoughts on Bob Iger’s successor as Disney CEO.

2023 and 2024 Box Office

In 2023, “Barbie” and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” were the only films that surpassed $1 billion, with “Oppenheimer” reaching about $950 million.

The anonymous executive thinks Universal’s “Despicable Me 4” is the only 2024 film that has a chance of reaching $1 billion. If nothing hits $1 billion, it would be the first time in 15 years that no film reached the milestone — that is, not counting 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic was at its peak. The film industry is still trying to recover from the pandemic. Some films have had financial theatrical success since 2020 but consumers got used to watching movies on streaming rather than going to the theaters.

Disney has had a rough few years at the box office. The last Disney-owned film to surpass $1 billion at the worldwide box office was 20th Century Studios’ “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which reached $2.32 billion and became the third highest-grossing film of all time, following only the first “Avatar” and “Avengers: Endgame.” The latter film was one of a few Disney films to reach $1 billion in 2019, alongside “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” “Frozen II,” “Toy Story 4,” live-action “The Lion King,” and live-action “Aladdin.”

Other than “Avatar: The Way of Water,” the only Disney films to come close to $1 billion since 2020 are “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” ($955.8 million), “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” ($859.2 million), and “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” ($845.6 million). “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” was the fourth highest-grossing film of 2023 after “Barbie,” “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” and “Oppenheimer.”

Theatrical releases on Disney’s calendar next year include the first-ever theater releases of Pixar’s “Soul,” “Turning Red,” and “Luca.” The films were released on Disney+ in 2020, 2021, and 2022 and are unlikely to make a significant amount at the box office.

Brand-new Disney films scheduled for 2024 are Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” (June 14), Marvel’s “Deadpool 3” (July 26), an untitled Walt Disney Animation Studios film (November 27), and “Mufasa: The Lion King” (December 20).

20th Century Studios films releasing in 2024 are “The First Omen” (April 5), “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (May 24), “Alien: Romulus” (August 16), and “The Amateur” (November 8). “Avatar 3,” “Avatar 4,” and “Avatar 5” are scheduled to be released in 2025, 2029, and 2031.

“Despicable Me 4,” produced by Illumination and distributed by Universal Pictures, will hit theaters on July 3, 2024. Other 2024 films produced and/or distributed by Universal include “Kung Fu Panda 4” (March 8), “Twisters” (July 19), “Wolf Man” (October 25), “Gladiator 2” (November 22), and “Wicked: Part One” (November 27).

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