The Omicron variant of COVID-19 continues to surge across the country. Florida recently broke its record for most cases in a day since the start of the pandemic. Yesterday, December 27, Orange County, Florida had a positivity rate of 45%.
Rusty McCranie of WFTV shared the news from Dr. Tim Hendrix of AdventHealth on Twitter. The positivity rate is 39% across all of Central Florida and was only about 5% two weeks ago.
Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando Resort are both in Orange County and have not made any announcements regarding changes in COVID-19 restrictions.
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I’m curious,
Since the majority of people getting tested are doing so because they think they may have COVID the positivity rate would seem to be largely just a measure of how well they guessed if they did or did not have COVID. The fact that people have learned to better guess right or wrong on testing may not be an accurate indicator of actual infection rate. Moreover, does this indicate that more people than before will have acquired immunity in the next week or so?
I’m not doubting that there is an issue or a hazard but I do want to understand the methodology better.
As an analogy, It almost seems like people are looking for colored grains of sand at the beach. If someone examines 1000 grains of sand on Day 1 and examines 1200 grains of sand on Day 2 it doesn’t mean the beach got 20% bigger. Also, if that person finds 5 colored grains of sand the one Day 1 and 9 colored grains on Day 2 it may mean that they are getting better at finding and spotting colored grains of sand rather than there genuinely being more colored grains from Day 1 to Day 2.
Omicron can start showing symptoms on a person within 3 days. We are just past that mark from Christmas and expect it to happen again about this time next week too due to New Years. So wear your masks CORRECTLY, wash your hands often, sanitize the same especially if you are out and about, if you feel any of the symptoms STAY HOME – I know our parents taught it’s nice to share, but we don’t want you to share this. Also if you have not yet, get vaccinated and then a booster when you are due. If people do these things and think about others we can get through this.
Oh well, stay home or don’t. It’s your decision!
Reading into his post a little bit more, this was supposed to be a 45% increase of cases (not 45% positivity rate). Testing as of Dec 28 is 13.3% positivity rate.