As data surrounding the ongoing health crisis is continuously updated, the situation surrounding COVID-19 keeps changing, with the latest projection models now stating that the earliest date social distancing may be possible in Florida is June 14. This is a marked delay from the previous June 1 estimations.
According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) from the University of Washington, a new color-coded map of the United States shows Florida under the grade indicating a June 8 or later date for relaxed social distancing. California is listed under a May 18 to May 24 threshold date. It’s implied that relaxed social distancing is contingent on containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering sizes.
Another graph issued by the IHME shows the gradual delay in estimated dates. On April 17, it was still believed that we could relax social distancing by June 1. On April 21, that date was moved to June 11. The latest prediction model lands Florida on a June 14 date. States like Washington could ease social distancing as soon as May 28. According to IHME research parameters, these predictions are based on when the upper bound of the 95% uncertainty interval for all-age COVID-19 prevalent infections falls below 1 per 1,000,000.
Of course, the state’s top business executives, including theme park presidents like Walt Disney World Resort’s Josh D’Amaro, have been appointed to the governor’s Re-Open Florida Task Force, with the group already in talks to come up with a plan to transition through the phases needed for a full reopening. Whether the state will follow medical models or financial predictions to decide on reopening dates is still unknown. Walt Disney World Resort remains closed “until further notice” and an official reopening date has not been announced.
Leading Epidemiologist are saying not to use this model for decision making as it doesn’t follow a good prediction algorithm. They have stated this is a curve fitting model which tries to base all decisions on putting you on a past curve. This model shift greatly every run (for example they added 3 weeks to Washington based on a one day spike in cases).
This model has been outside it’s confidence interval 70%+ of the time. I would expect Florida to slowly start opening sooner than June.
Since when did IHME become our leader?
Since we started battling diseases probably.
This is gonna take forever
Let’s face it, Disney’s gone.
Disney has been in tough situations in the past and came out just fine. They will survive.
There will be changes however, massive changes in the short term. I am very interested in seeing what they do to satisfy the social distancing requirements.
As frustrating as it is, I hope they don’t open too soon and cause a re-emergence of the virus. That would be catastrophic.
The model says relaxed social distancing WITH crowd limitations. There’s no way the parks will open by then. Parks will be the last to re-open due to the crowd size.
How do you do “ relaxed social distancing “ in Disneyworld?